Don't Take a Chance On Me

I get to talk about the card chosen by the contest's 3rd placer today. It even covers a new aspect of gameplay that I haven't talked about yet!

How often do you play with randomness in your deck? I'm sure some of you out there are Grip of Chaos aficionados, but probably not many of you. So I pose those people this: how often does that Chaos deck actually win? "Randomly", you chortle behind a hand raised to your mouth in mocking, small-Asian-woman manner.

The world must appreciate my comedy. Even though it's still in its infancy. OH I NEED TO WRITE THAT DOWN.

To which I respond, "How randomly?"

"Uh... randomly enough?"

To which you punctuate your statement by showing me the "best" card in your deck. Behold:

Okay, I get it. If you skip to those last two lines of text and ignore the rest, it's pretty awesome. But let's take a journey into Mathemagic Land and show you what's going to happen when you cast this. Of course, I'm assuming you're not a cheating bastard and these probabilities are accurate.

FLIP 1

You have a 50% chance to do 3 damage to a creature. So half of the time this is going to literally do nothing. Not a promising start. The other half of the time, it's a strictly worse Volcanic Hammer. I don't see anything redeeming here.

Cumulatives:
50%: 3 damage to a creature.

FLIP 2

This is, of course, assuming you chose to keep going. You have a 50% chance here to do 6 damage to each opponent. Normally, 6 damage for 3 would be awesome, but this is still at a disadvantage because it has a chance to do nothing. I'd rather take a chance on a card that will do something regardless of what mode is chosen.

Cumulatives:
50%: 3 damage to a creature.
25%: 6 damage to each opponent.

FLIP 3

Assuming you haven't got it into your head to cash out while you're ahead, you have the option to take another 50% gamble and do something truly awesome: an almost strictly-better Time Spiral. Nothing to scoff at, certainly. But let's look at the numbers.

Cumulatives:
50%: 3 damage to a creature.
25%: 6 damage to each opponent.
12.5%: Win at life.

So okay, Adrenaline Timmy sees this card and says, "Screw the probabilities, I have money Krark's Thumb!" Which is a 2-mana do-nothing artifact unless your entire deck is tailored around 1.) doing nothing or 2.) something awful to yourself half the time. Sure, it raises your chances to 75% per flip, but a well-timed wrench in your plans brings that right back down to Loserville.

Oh, did I mention you have to have a creature to target in the first place to cast this in the first place?. So that Spike that's playing 32counters.dek won't even notice you're playing this, because his only win conditions are unremovable at sorcery speed. Then you're forced to play a card that only provides benefit if you win two flips in a row. Fantastic.

Random chance has always been one of Spike's worst nightmares. In Spike's eyes, Volcanic Hammer is strictly better than this card because it guarantees its mode of function. He shakes his head at Adrenaline Timmy that plays 20 games to have the Gambit go off in maybe 3 of them.

Whatever makes him happy.